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Werden die Fiskalregeln weiter gelockert, verringert sich die Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen. Die finanzpolitische Unsicherheit in Deutschland und Europa nimmt zu. Das Grundgesetz enthielt von …
"Gastbeitrag Finanzpolitische Unsicherheit durch Erosion der Fiskalregeln" weiterlesen
Der Beitrag <b>Gastbeitrag </b><br>Finanzpolitische Unsicherheit durch Erosion der Fiskalregeln erschien zuerst auf Wirtschaftliche Freiheit.

This paper explores the effects of tax provisions aimed at restricting multinationals' tax planning on foreign direct investment (FDI). Using a unique dataset which allows us to observe the worldwide activities of a large panel of multinational firms, we test how limitations of interest tax deductibility, so-called thin-capitalization rules, and regulations of transfer pricing by the host country affect investment and employment of foreign subsidiaries. The results indicate that, compared with the unrestricted case, in the presence of a typical thin-capitalization rule, the tax-rate sensitivity of FDI is about twice as large. Moreover, introducing such a rule or making it more tight exerts significant adverse effects on the level of FDI in high-tax countries. Regulations of transfer pricing, however, are not found to exert significant effects on FDI.

This paper explores the conditions under which decentralization and fiscal competition lead to a policy of subsidizing cultural activities. A theoretical analysis discusses these subsidies as a form of local public good provision which makes a city more attractive to highly educated individuals. The analysis shows that the incentive to provide the public good is particularly strong, if institutional restrictions prevent local governments from adjusting their tax structure. An empirical analysis considering the case of public theaters in Germany supports the view that public subsidies attract highly educated individuals and capitalize in the earnings of workers with basic education. Given institutional restrictions, the empirical effects suggest that local jurisdictions face a substantial fiscal incentive to subsidize cultural activities.

This paper reviews the practice and performance of revenue forecasting in selected OECD countries. While the mean forecast errors are small in most countries, the precision of the forecasts measured by the standard deviation of the forecast error differs substantially across countries. Based on a comparison of forecasting practices we show that these differences can be attributed to a large part to differences in the timing of the forecasts and in the tax structure. In addition, we find some evidence that differences in methods and institutions also matter for the forecasting precision. In particular, we find that the use of macroeconomic models as well as the independence of revenue forecasting are associated with a lower standard deviation of the forecast error.

Using a firm-level dataset this paper investigates the impact of taxation on the decision of German multinationals to hold direct investments in other European countries or abroad. Controlling for firm-specific differences in the valuation of potential locations, the results confirm significant effects of tax incentives, market size, and of labor cost on cross-border location decisions. In accordance with Devereux and Griffith (1998) we find that the marginal tax rate has no predictive power for location decisions whereas effective average and statutory tax rates exert significant effects. In particular, the statutory tax rate has strong predictive power for the likelihood of direct investment holdings at a location. The results indicate that an increase in the statutory tax rate by 10 percentage points reduces the odds of observing some positive direct investment by approximately 20 %.

A theoretical model describes the local choice of the tax rate on capital income. It establishes preferences and various fiscal conditions - including the tax rates of competing jurisdictions - as determinants of the tax rate. The empirical implications are tested using a large panel of jurisdictions in Germany, which have discretion in setting the local rate of the business tax. Tax competition is identified by means of instrumental variables techniques. Despite significant competition effects between local neighbors, where taxrates are strategic complements, jurisdictions are found to have some leeway in using the tax rate as an instrument of their policy. In particular, large jurdisdictions set higher tax rates in interjurisdictional competition.

We argue that in labor markets with central wage bargaining wage flexibility varies systematically across the wage distribution: local wage flexibility is more relevant for the upper part of the wage distribution, and flexibility of wages negotiated under central wage bargaining affects the lower part of the wage distribution. Using a random sample of German social security accounts, we estimate wage flexibility across the wage distribution by means of quantile regressions. The results support our hypothesis, as employees with low wages have significantly lower local wage flexibility than high wage employees. This effect is particularly relevant for the lower educational groups. On the other hand, employees with low wages tend to have a higher wage flexibility with respect to national unemployment.

Abstract
The paper deals with the current budget crisis in Germany, which was triggered by an attempt to increase public debt beyond the limits of the German constitution. The rejection of the Supplementary Budget 2021 of the federal government by the Constitutional Court in November 2023 requires a substantial revision of budget plans. The paper first asks why fiscal policy has moved outside the rules of the constitution. The paper then addresses the question of whether the necessary turnaround in financial policy has now been initiated. To this end, the paper explores the recent supplementary budget 2023 and the proposals for the budget 2024.